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According to the research report released by SDIC Securities on December 8, if we want to treat this wave of "new year's market" with "innovation", it is necessary for the US dollar index to clearly turn from strong to weak and the fiscal expenditure to enter a clear expansion cycle. The pricing of risk preference turning to fundamentals may have to be further confirmed in the second quarter of next year (strong dollar turning to weak dollar+stimulus policy effectively reversing domestic demand). Looking back at history, after M1 rebounded from the bottom for two consecutive months, the market sector represented by consumption and pro-cyclical sectors will start pricing around fundamentals, which also means that if the growth rate of M1 continues to rebound in November, this extreme differentiation pricing model of large and small markets is expected to be gradually reversed.According to the statistics of the First Financial Reporter, the 100 stocks with the smallest closing market value on September 23 have almost doubled up to now. In the same period, the average increase of 66 stocks in the market value component was 19.2%, and the average increase of the fund's heavy stocks was 27.5%, which was far worse than that of small-cap stocks.Micro-disk stocks continued their strong performance this year. Since September 24th, the index of micro-disk stocks has risen by 61.4%, while only one of the 402 stocks in the sector has fallen, with an average increase of 44.03%, which greatly outperformed the indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50. The cumulative increase of 19 stocks including Renzhi (002629.SZ), Shandong Huapeng (603021.SH), Xingtu Xinke (688081.SH) and Lianxiang (603272.SH) exceeded 80%.

Micro-disk stocks continued their strong performance this year. Since September 24th, the index of micro-disk stocks has risen by 61.4%, while only one of the 402 stocks in the sector has fallen, with an average increase of 44.03%, which greatly outperformed the indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50. The cumulative increase of 19 stocks including Renzhi (002629.SZ), Shandong Huapeng (603021.SH), Xingtu Xinke (688081.SH) and Lianxiang (603272.SH) exceeded 80%.Looking further, humanoid robots and AI concept leading stocks, which are the hottest in the market recently, are almost taken over by small-cap stocks. The data shows that since September 23, the humanoid robot sector has risen by the top 30 stocks, with an average increase of about 114%. Before the market started, the average market value of 30 stocks was less than 4.1 billion yuan. In terms of individual stocks, Eft's total market value was less than 4 billion on September 23, and it has risen 3.5 times since then, and it is currently about 17.6 billion yuan. The total market value of Juneng shares rose from 770 million yuan to 2.6 billion yuan; Tuosida rose from about 4 billion market value to 16.4 billion yuan.[Robots are hot this year! 】

Compared with small and medium-sized stocks, large-cap stocks have always been known for their stable operating performance and higher dividends. According to the analysis and research report of Guotai Junan's third quarterly report, the performance of all A-shares declined in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, the net profit growth rate of all A-share non-financial and non-petroleum and petrochemical listed companies (hereinafter referred to as "all A-shares and two non-shares") was -10.8% year-on-year, which was further enlarged compared with the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -8.0%, and negative growth for seven consecutive quarters. In terms of revenue, the cumulative growth rate of all A companies in the third quarter of 2024 was -1.6%, and it was -0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, with an enlarged decline.According to the research report released by SDIC Securities on December 8, if we want to treat this wave of "new year's market" with "innovation", it is necessary for the US dollar index to clearly turn from strong to weak and the fiscal expenditure to enter a clear expansion cycle. The pricing of risk preference turning to fundamentals may have to be further confirmed in the second quarter of next year (strong dollar turning to weak dollar+stimulus policy effectively reversing domestic demand). Looking back at history, after M1 rebounded from the bottom for two consecutive months, the market sector represented by consumption and pro-cyclical sectors will start pricing around fundamentals, which also means that if the growth rate of M1 continues to rebound in November, this extreme differentiation pricing model of large and small markets is expected to be gradually reversed.SDIC Securities Research Report pointed out that from the perspective of capital, this phenomenon (micro-disk stocks hit a record high) is naturally easy to explain: the core of the incremental fund group is retail hot money, and the pricing power is not in the hands of institutions.